{"id":17647,"date":"2026-01-10T04:25:31","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T04:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.earnest-advisory.com.cn\/?p=17647"},"modified":"2026-02-27T04:26:30","modified_gmt":"2026-02-27T04:26:30","slug":"2025-nian-quan-qiu-jing-ji-gai-yao-ji-2026-nian-zhan-wang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.earnest-advisory.com.cn\/zh-hans\/2025-nian-quan-qiu-jing-ji-gai-yao-ji-2026-nian-zhan-wang\/","title":{"rendered":"2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6982\u8981\u53ca2026\u5e74\u5c55\u671b"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u627f\u63a5\u4e0a\u6587\u300a2024\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u603b\u7ed3\u300b<\/div>\n
2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u683c\u5c40\u98ce\u8d77\u4e91\u6d8c\u2014\u2014\u5f53\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u57284\u67082\u65e5”\u89e3\u653e\u65e5”\u629b\u51fa\u768410%\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\u4e0e”\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e”\u9707\u60ca\u4e16\u754c\u65f6\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u80fd\u9884\u6599\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u573a\u4ece”\u7cbe\u51c6\u6253\u51fb”\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a”\u65e0\u5dee\u522b\u626b\u5c04”\u7684\u8d38\u6613\u6218\uff0c\u7adf\u4f1a\u572890\u5929\u5185\u903c\u51fa\u4e00\u4e2a“\u4ea4\u6613\u5316”<\/strong>\u7684\u65b0\u8d38\u6613\u79e9\u5e8f\u3002WTO\u4e0a\u8bc9\u673a\u6784\u6301\u7eed\u762b\u75ea\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u7528\u6295\u8d44\u627f\u8bfa\u548c\u91c7\u8d2d\u534f\u8bae\u6362\u53d6\u7a0e\u7387\u51cf\u514d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u5728“\u5b89\u5168\u4f18\u5148”<\/strong>\u4e0e“\u6210\u672c\u4f18\u5148”<\/strong>\u95f4\u8270\u96be\u6447\u6446\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ece\u534e\u76db\u987f\u5230\u4e1c\u4eac\uff0c\u4ece\u67cf\u6797\u5230\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u5728AI\u8d44\u672c\u72c2\u6f6e\u4e0e\u503a\u52a1\u60ac\u5d16\u7684\u53cc\u91cd\u6324\u538b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5c55\u73b0\u51fa\u60ca\u4eba\u7684\u97e7\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u66b4\u9732\u51fa\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u88c2\u75d5\u3002<\/div>\n
\n

\u4e00\u30012025\u5e74\uff1a\u5173\u7a0e\u51b2\u51fb\u4e0b\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u97e7\u6027\u5206\u5316<\/h3>\n

1. \u5173\u7a0e\u653f\u7b56\u91cd\u5851\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u683c\u5c40<\/h4>\n
2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u8fdb\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\u5f81\u653610%\u57fa\u51c6\u5173\u7a0e\uff0c\u5e76\u9488\u5bf9\u4e3b\u8981\u8d38\u6613\u4f19\u4f34\u5b9e\u65bd“\u5bf9\u7b49\u5173\u7a0e”<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5e73\u5747\u8fdb\u53e3\u7a0e\u7387\u4ece2.5%\u9aa4\u5347\u81f322.5%\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u653f\u7b56\u89e6\u53d1\u5168\u740390\u5929\u8c08\u5224\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u88ab\u8feb\u4ee5\u6295\u8d44\u627f\u8bfa\u6362\u53d6\u964d\u7a0e\uff1a<\/div>\n
    \n
  • \n
    \u6b27\u76df\u627f\u8bfa3\u5e74\u5185\u8d2d\u4e707500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7f8e\u56fd\u80fd\u6e90\u5e76\u6295\u8d446000\u4ebf<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  • \n
    \u65e5\u97e9\u5206\u522b\u627f\u8bfa\u5bf9\u7f8e\u6295\u8d445500\u4ebf\u548c3500\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6362\u53d6\u7a0e\u7387\u964d\u81f315%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    \u7136\u800c\uff0cWTO\u4e0a\u8bc9\u673a\u6784\u81ea2019\u5e74\u8d77\u56e0\u7f8e\u56fd\u963b\u6320\u6cd5\u5b98\u4efb\u547d\u800c\u762b\u75ea\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u4f53\u7cfb\u4ece“\u57fa\u4e8e\u89c4\u5219”<\/strong>\u8f6c\u5411“\u4ea4\u6613\u5316\u653f\u6cbb\u535a\u5f08”<\/strong>\u3002\u4f9b\u5e94\u94fe\u903b\u8f91\u52a0\u901f\u4ece“\u6210\u672c\u6700\u4f18”<\/strong>\u8f6c\u5411“\u5b89\u5168\u4f18\u5148”<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f01\u4e1a\u63d0\u524d\u5907\u8d27\u548c\u8f6c\u53e3\u8d38\u6613\u652f\u6491\u5168\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u989d\u5fae\u589e0.3%\uff0c\u4f464\u6708\u540e\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u73af\u6bd4\u66b4\u8dcc\u8fd120%\uff0c\u65b0\u51fa\u53e3\u8ba2\u5355\u6307\u6570\u8dcc\u81f320\u4e2a\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002<\/div>\n

    2. \u4e3b\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u56f0\u5883\u52a0\u5267<\/h4>\n
    \u7f8e\u56fd\u9677\u5165\u6ede\u80c0\u98ce\u9669<\/strong><\/div>\n
      \n
    • \n
      GDP\u589e\u901f\u4ece\u5e74\u521d\u9884\u6d4b\u76842%\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f31.3%-1.4%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      \u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4ece2.3%\u5347\u81f33.2%-3.5%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      \u8d22\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u8fbe1.8\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u503a\u52a1\u7a81\u783438\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5360GDP 125%\uff09<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      10\u6708\u5173\u95e843\u5929\u521b\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u957f<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      \u5c3d\u7ba1AI\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8fbe3000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff08\u5360\u7f8e\u80a11\/3\u5e02\u503c\uff09\uff0c\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u5374\u88c1\u5458\u8d8510\u4e07\u4eba<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      \u5bb6\u5ead\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u503a\u52a1\u6fc0\u589e\u81f31.21\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u7fa4\u4f53\u50a8\u84c4\u7387\u4e0b\u964d<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n
      \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u65bd\u538b\u4e0b\u88ab\u8feb\u63a8\u8fdf\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u5168\u5e74\u4ec5\u964d50\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u9677\u5165\u6297\u901a\u80c0\u4e0e\u7a33\u589e\u957f\u7684“\u8d70\u94a2\u4e1d”<\/strong>\u56f0\u5883<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \u4e2d\u56fd”\u5e73\u7a33\u4e2d\u627f\u538b”<\/strong><\/div>\n
        \n
      • \n
        GDP\u589e\u901f5.0%\u7b26\u5408\u76ee\u6807<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        \u4f46\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u6295\u8d44\u4e0b\u8dcc15%\u3001\u9500\u552e\u989d\u8dcc11.2%\uff0c\u62d6\u7d2fGDP\u7ea62-3\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        PPI\u6301\u7eed\u8d1f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u5185\u9700\u4e0d\u8db3\u5bfc\u81f4\u4f01\u4e1a“\u5185\u5377\u5f0f”<\/strong>\u7ade\u4e89<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        \u653f\u5e9c\u53d1\u884c1.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u7279\u522b\u56fd\u503a\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8d39\u5374\u6548\u679c\u6709\u9650<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        \u51fa\u53e3\u9006\u52bf\u589e\u957f6.2%\uff0c\u8d38\u6613\u987a\u5dee\u9996\u7834\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n
        \u4f46\u5bf9\u7f8e\u51fa\u53e3\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u8f6c\u53e3\u8d38\u6613\u4e0e\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u586b\u8865\u7f3a\u53e3<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \u5fb7\u56fd”\u589e\u957f\u57ab\u5e95”<\/strong><\/div>\n
          \n
        • \n
          GDP\u589e\u901f\u4ec50.1%-0.3%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n
          \u80fd\u6e90\u5371\u673a\u4f59\u6ce2\u53e0\u52a0“\u503a\u52a1\u5239\u8f66”<\/strong>\u9650\u5236\u8d22\u653f\u7a7a\u95f4\uff0c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u51fa\u53e3\u75b2\u8f6f<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n
          \u65b0\u653f\u5e9c\u88ab\u8feb\u63a8\u51fa5000\u4ebf\u6b27\u5143\u57fa\u5efa\u57fa\u91d1\uff0c\u5c06\u519b\u8d39\u4ece1.5%GDP\u63d0\u81f35%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n
          \u517b\u8001\u91d1\u5df2\u5360\u8054\u90a6\u9884\u7b9740%\uff0c\u8d22\u653f\u53ef\u6301\u7eed\u6027\u582a\u5fe7<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          \u65e5\u672c”\u901a\u80c0\u5931\u63a7”<\/strong><\/div>\n
            \n
          • \n
            GDP\u589e\u901f1.1%\uff0cCPI\u540c\u6bd4\u5347\u81f33.5%\u9ad8\u4f4d<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
          • \n
            \u7ed3\u675f\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\u901a\u7f29\u5374\u5f15\u53d1\u6c11\u4f17\u5f3a\u70c8\u4e0d\u6ee1<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
          • \n
            \u81ea\u6c11\u515a\u9009\u4e3e\u60e8\u8d25\uff0c\u9ad8\u5e02\u65e9\u82d7\u63a8\u51fa21.3\u4e07\u4ebf\u65e5\u5143\u523a\u6fc0\u8ba1\u5212\u5e76\u65bd\u538b\u592e\u884c\u63a8\u8fdf\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u65e5\u5143\u8dcc\u7834160<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
          • \n
            \u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u5728\u8d22\u653f\u4e0e\u901a\u80c0\u95f4\u8fdb\u9000\u4e24\u96be\uff0c12\u6708\u867d\u52a0\u606f\u4f46\u8282\u594f\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            3. AI\u6295\u8d44\u7206\u53d1\u4f46\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u9047\u51b7<\/h4>\n
            2025\u5e74\u5168\u7403AI\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u8d856000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u56db\u5927\u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u6295\u51653000\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002AI\u4ece\u884c\u4e1a\u6982\u5ff5\u5347\u7ea7\u4e3a“\u51b3\u5b9a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8d70\u5411”<\/strong>\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u652f\u6491\u7f8e\u80a1\u4f30\u503c\u4f46\u521b\u9020\u5c97\u4f4d\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u52a0\u5267\u7ed3\u6784\u6027\u5931\u4e1a\u3002\u5404\u56fd\u5c06AI\u5217\u4e3a\u6218\u7565\u6295\u8d44\u65b9\u5411\uff1a<\/div>\n
              \n
            • \n
              \u7f8e\u56fd\u51cf\u7a0e\u6276\u6301<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
            • \n
              \u65e5\u672c\u6295\u5165\u56fd\u9632AI<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
            • \n
              \u5fb7\u56fd\u8865\u8d34\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
              \u5f62\u6210“\u8d44\u672c\u70ed\u3001\u5c31\u4e1a\u51b7”<\/strong>\u7684K\u578b\u5206\u5316<\/strong>\u3002<\/div>\n
              \n

              \u4e8c\u30012026\u5e74\u5c55\u671b\uff1a\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4ece\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u7ecf\u6d4e\u57fa\u672c\u9762<\/h3>\n
              \u5173\u7a0e\u6ede\u540e\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/div>\n
                \n
              • \n
                \u82e590\u5929\u8c08\u5224\u671f\u540e\u7a0e\u7387\u672a\u80fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8c03\uff0cIMF\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd2026\u5e74GDP\u5c06\u989d\u5916\u635f\u59310.8\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
              • \n
                \u5168\u7403\u8d38\u6613\u589e\u901f\u4ec5\u56de\u5347\u81f31.2%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
              • \n
                \u4e2d\u5370\u8c08\u5224\u7ed3\u679c\u6210\u4e3a\u6700\u5927\u53d8\u91cf\uff0c\u62a5\u590d\u6027\u5173\u7a0e\u53ef\u80fd\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                AI\u53d9\u4e8b\u9a8c\u8bc1\u98ce\u9669<\/strong><\/div>\n
                  \n
                • \n
                  \u79d1\u6280\u5de8\u5934\u80a1\u4ef7\u4e0eAI\u8d44\u672c\u652f\u51fa\u5f62\u6210“\u4e0d\u80fd\u8dcc”<\/strong>\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u7ed1\u67b6<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                • \n
                  \u82e52026\u5e74\u5546\u4e1a\u5316\u843d\u5730\u4e0d\u53ca\u9884\u671f\uff0c20\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u7f8e\u80a1AI\u677f\u5757\u53ef\u80fd\u5d29\u76d8<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                • \n
                  \u76f4\u63a5\u51b2\u51fb\u5bb6\u5ead\u8d22\u5bcc\u4e0e\u4f01\u4e1a\u6295\u8d44\u4fe1\u5fc3<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                  \u503a\u52a1-\u901a\u80c0\u87ba\u65cb<\/strong><\/div>\n
                    \n
                  • \n
                    \u7f8e\u56fd\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd2026\u5e74\u540c\u6b65\u8fdb\u5165“\u8d22\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u5e74”<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n
                    \u9884\u8ba1\u4e09\u5927\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u65b0\u589e\u503a\u52a1\u8d855\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n
                    \u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u73af\u5883\u4e0b\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5360\u7f8e\u8054\u90a6\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u91cd\u6216\u8fbe40%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n
                    \u592e\u884c\u72ec\u7acb\u6027\u53d7\u653f\u6cbb\u5e72\u9884\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u88ab\u8feb\u91cd\u542fQE\uff0c\u5f15\u53d1\u65b0\u4e00\u8f6e\u8d27\u5e01\u7ade\u4e89\u6027\u8d2c\u503c<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                    \u653f\u6cbb\u8d85\u7ea7\u5468\u671f<\/strong><\/div>\n
                      \n
                    • \n
                      \u7f8e\u56fd\u4e2d\u671f\u9009\u4e3e\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u53c2\u8bae\u9662\u8865\u9009\u3001\u5fb7\u56fd\u9884\u7b97\u6848\u5ba1\u8bae\u5c06\u51b3\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u8fde\u7eed\u6027<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                    • \n
                      \u7279\u6717\u666e\u82e5\u518d\u5ea6\u65bd\u538b\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8“\u5927\u5e45\u964d\u606f”<\/strong>\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6467\u6bc1\u7f8e\u5143\u4fe1\u7528<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                    • \n
                      \u52a0\u901f\u53bb\u7f8e\u5143\u5316\uff08\u5982\u6c99\u7279\u5bf9\u534e\u77f3\u6cb9\u8d38\u6613\u90e8\u5206\u7528\u4eba\u6c11\u5e01\u7ed3\u7b97\uff09<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
                      \u5730\u7f18\u51b2\u7a81\u6ea2\u51fa<\/strong><\/div>\n
                        \n
                      • \n
                        \u4e2d\u4e1c\u5c40\u52bf\u3001\u4fc4\u4e4c\u51b2\u7a81\u6301\u7eed\u6270\u52a8\u80fd\u6e90\u4f9b\u5e94<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                      • \n
                        \u7f8e\u56fd\u4e8c\u7ea7\u5236\u88c1\u5bfc\u81f4G7\u4e0e\u975eG7\u5e02\u573a\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5206\u88c2<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
                      • \n
                        \u4efb\u4f55\u5347\u7ea7\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f\u5168\u7403CPI\u91cd\u65b0\u7a81\u78343.5%<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
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